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I paused all paid media in one state for 21 days. The incremental lift was 38%, not the 92% the attribution report claimed.
Attribution reports measure correlation, not incrementality. A 21-day geo holdout is the cheapest way to find out which fraction of your paid-media revenue would have happened anyway. The protocol I run quarterly on every $10M+ home brand.
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The 4 numbers I put in a $20M home brand's next board deck on paid (and the 3 numbers I cut)
Your board does not need eleven paid-media KPIs. It needs the four that map to decisions and the discipline to cut the seven that map to nothing. The memo I send to internal CMOs the week before the meeting.
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New-customer CAC $127. First-order margin $95. The cohort payback curve that tells me whether to scale.
Blended CAC hides the cash math. A real CAC payback curve, measured weekly on the new-customer cohort, is the only number that tells a $5M+ Shopify home brand whether the next budget increase will fund growth or fund a cash crunch.
Want one of these on your account?
One strategy call. Direct. No account managers.
Thirty minutes on the phone. Bring the account, the goals, the story. Walk out with a clear set of next steps.