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New-customer CAC $127. First-order margin $95. The cohort payback curve that tells me whether to scale.
Blended CAC hides the cash math. A real CAC payback curve, measured weekly on the new-customer cohort, is the only number that tells a $5M+ Shopify home brand whether the next budget increase will fund growth or fund a cash crunch.
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Your ROAS is inflated by shipping and discounts (Smart Bidding is optimizing for the wrong number)
Most Shopify Purchase events send gross revenue to Google Ads. Smart Bidding then bids harder on the orders with high shipping. Margin contribution drifts down for a year before anyone notices. The 4-step fix takes 10 minutes plus a 6-week rebalance.
Want one of these on your account?
One strategy call. Direct. No account managers.
Thirty minutes on the phone. Bring the account, the goals, the story. Walk out with a clear set of next steps.